I've been very remiss in my postings here. I just never seem to get time. Here's some information on how my training preparation for Nice has gone and how I see the day going.
Swim:
I've been having a few problems with my legs cramping after about 40 minutes in the water. It's not exact, and I have only noticed it on longer swims. I'm a little worried about cramping in Nice, but once it subsides, I am able to get back swimming again, and it doesn't affect the muscles I use for cycling. It does affect my running muscles however, so that's a problem. To date, my longest swim is only about 2/3 the Ironman distance (100 lengths). I felt OK afterwards, but my arms were a bit tired. So I'm confident I can do the first lap as long as I stay calm and stick to my (slow) pace. The second lap may be a bit daunting, but again, I have to not panic even if I'm way near the back of the pack. As long as I've done the first lap in under one hour, I can still finish it in time not to miss the cutoff time of 2:15. I'm hoping for a 53min 1st lap, and my swim stroke is consistent, so the same for the second.
Estimate - 1 hour 45.
Bike:
This is the only area where I feel fairly confident that I can do the distance. Of course, I've never cycled 110 miles (top ride is 100 so far), and I've never done a long ride after a long swim. But I have been to Nice and done the difficult 80 miles climbing portion of the race, and that gives me some confidence that I can do it again. I averaged ~25km/h that time, and on the flat I should be able to keep to that or more.
Estimate - 7 hours
Run:
Really apprehensive about the run. If the swim and bike go OK then I'll have 7 hours to finish it. If my calves hold out, and I hydrate properly, then a slow shuffle in the afternoon sun should be OK. Of course, my training has been broken twice with calf injuries, and I've only ever run a maximum of about 8-9 miles in my life, which is only about a third of a marathon, so this really is unchartered territory.
Estimate 4-7 hours.
Total of the estimates gives 13-16 hours, depending on my legs. I'd really like to beat 4 hours for the marathon, and I'm putting some painkillers in my bag at T2 and shall chomp on those if need be. I have no idea how the exhaustion of being active all day will affect me, again, a completely unknown factor. I know that I can cycle fairly hard for 7 hours, I know that I'll get a bit of a rest on the back leg of the Nice course, and I'm hoping I can just keep going.
All that sounds a bit negative I know, but there are positive aspects. It's not long ago that I thought 2 lengths of the pool without stopping was an achievment, and I remember collapsing onto the sofa after my first 3 hour ride and not getting up again all day. I only took up triathlon in November 2004, and I'm actually happy at how far I've come. I'm really looking forward to getting out there - I wish it was tomorrow - I think the bike course is amazing, and even if I'm tired, I'm going to be thinking that it's great just to be able to attempt something like this. I really will be gutted if I don't finish. I don't care if I cross the line with seconds to spare, the time isn't important, but I do want to finish inside the 16 hours.
Time will tell.
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